China's manufacturing industry must move to Industry 4.0. It must first fill in Industry 3.0, Lean Production, and even Industry 2.0, IE (Industrial Engineering).
IE is the foundation of everything, TPS, 6Sigma, TOC (Theory of Constraints, bottleneck theory, often with lean production, Six Sigma and mention), 5S (modern factory management theory from Japan) are based on IE!
The penetration and transformation of the Internet to the commercial sector is backwards, starting with the consumer's most recent advertising marketing end, entering the retail industry, infiltrating the distribution process, and ultimately pushing to the manufacturing process. During this process, production methods, management concepts, and production There will be major changes in equipment and even raw materials. What kind of changes will happen to the Internet + manufacturing industry? How do traditional manufacturing companies embrace the transformation of the Internet? Alibaba Research Institute based on the classical theory of manufacturing industry and the emergence of changes in the edge of the industry, summed up the analysis and discuss with the industry.
1, Internet + manufacturing is forced out, and its transformation power comes from the downstream
Figure 1: Collaborative Upgrade of Production, Sales, and Consumption
The internetization of manufacturing industry is a part of the collaborative upgrade of “production-sales-consumption”. Its transformation power comes from downstream circulation end and consumption end. The higher the degree of downstream Internetization (online and data), the more significant is the effect on the upstream manufacturing sector. At present, the retail industry of the book industry has the highest level of Internetization, with a conservative estimate of more than 50%. Therefore, we have seen that the “printing and publishing” link in the production and manufacturing of books has been highly Internet-based, and digital publishing and digital distribution have become very popular. Textile and apparel is another highly-internetized industry at the retail level. The industry is estimated at more than 30%, which means that there are 30 pieces of clothing for every 100 garments sold on the Internet.
It is conceivable that it exerts a great amount of counterforce on the upstream production and manufacturing. Therefore, we see that in the garment factory, the acceleration of flexible production, the shortened production cycle, production methods and equipment have changed. For a large number of industrial manufacturing enterprises, the downstream is a Class B customer. The demand for such Internet + business is more from the synergy needs among enterprises, but the power is still from downstream customers. For example, smart devices and smart products that are currently in full swing will embed sensors in products and sell them to customers to collect data continuously and upload them to the cloud. But you can see that only when customers have such needs and are willing to share data, the manufacturing side has such motivation.
2. "Smiling Curve" Misleads China's Manufacturing Industry
In 1992, Taiwan entrepreneur Shi Zhenrong proposed the "SmileCurve" theory. The smile curve shows that the added value on the left and right sides of the curve is high and the profit space is large; while the processing, assembly, and manufacturing at the bottom of the curve, the technical content is not high, the added value is low, and the profit is low. Chinese industry has become a classic for the "smile curve" and is therefore confused. Under this ideological guidance, the direction of China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading must extend to the so-called high-end value chain, especially taking the road of branding. The road to the retail market and the brand is a “succession with 90%” strategy, which is extremely risky and does not apply to all manufacturing companies.
Figure 2: Smile Curve vs Musashi Curve
In fact, the manufacturing industry is not so pessimistic. There are theoretical and practical opposites to the smile curve. In 2004, Nakamura Sugada, director of the Sony Nakamura Research Institute in Japan, put forward the “Musashi curve”, which is an arched curve that is opposite to the smile curve. The true richest source of profit is precisely “manufacturing”. In June 2005, Japan’s “2004 Manufacturing White Paper” also verified that nearly 400 manufacturing companies surveyed have confirmed that there are many companies with the highest profit margins in terms of manufacturing and assembly. The reason why China's manufacturing industry is confused by the smile curve is that the fundamental reason is the poor management of China's manufacturing industry.
In the past 20 years, under the WTO's foreign trade bonus and the government-led investment-driven growth model, China's manufacturing industry has made profits easily. At the same time, real estate and finance are too easy to make money. Business owners are generally reluctant to invest in the manufacturing industry. Not only did China's manufacturing industry fail to export any ideas to the world for 30 years, but even mature manufacturing management theories such as IE (Industrial Engineering), TPS (Toyota Production System), and 6 Sigma were rarely used. All this has led to the fact that the "manufactured" profits are far from being reflected.
3, the direction of manufacturing transformation from simple "manufacturing" to "supply chain coordination"
In the transformation of the manufacturing industry's Internet, the C2M model requires retailing of genes and slow branding. Not all companies have this capability. We believe that the more viable transformation of manufacturing is to provide supply chain services. But what is the supply chain? Many people are talking about it, but they seem to have different points. Give a simple example to illustrate the difference between "simple manufacturing" and "supply chain synergy."
A garment factory received an order from a brand dealer on June 1st to produce 1000 suits for each of the AB models, and requested delivery before July 1. This factory is immersed in hard work, produces quality clothes and clothing, and sends the goods before July 1. This is called manufacturing. The "supply chain synergy" approach is that factories in the production process to understand the brand business where: A style best-selling, in the middle of June has been lower than the minimum safety stock, and soon there will be out of stock; and B models slow-moving, there are A lot of inventory. Then the factory should speed up the production and delivery of A models, and delay the production of B models and even reduce the amount of orders, which is the "supply chain collaboration" approach.
Figure 3: Automatic Production and Replenishment System
Whether it is a consumer product or an industrial product, this model can be used as long as it is a 2B business. The long-term value of manufacturing is to help your downstream customers make money. In the absence of the Internet, some excellent companies have already made outstanding explorations in this area, such as Cisco, Wal-Mart, Toyota Motor, Dell, and Huawei. The Internet, as a wide-area connection tool, can connect the upstream and downstream of the supply chain more cost-effectively, and achieve a greater range of supply chain collaboration through data collaboration.
4. The supply chain collaboration is based on the following: playing large data, ERP, and MES systems for electricity suppliers to achieve vertical integration
To achieve supply chain collaboration, it is necessary to achieve data sharing and strategy consistency in all aspects of the value chain. At the production end, it is first necessary to break through the gap between ERP and MES to achieve internal collaboration. ERP is an enterprise-level resource planning management; MES is a management information system oriented to the workshop floor between the upper-level planning management system and the underlying industrial control. The ERP plan generates an executable production order, while the MES keeps track of the execution of the work order and prevents errors from occurring. Its management range from production to shipment. Unfortunately, most of the manufacturing plants ERP and MES are two systems that are independent. Productivity, order progress, and production inventory are only black box operations for ERP.
Figure 4: Three-tier enterprise integration model
If the company can achieve the integration and cooperation of ERP, MES, and even CRM within the enterprise, it is further necessary to connect the e-commerce big data, including real-time order data, demand forecast data, etc. This part of the data may belong to different partners. At this time, the cooperative consciousness, the information level, the data interface standard, and even the incentive mechanism of the partners are crucial. When all the systems of the industrial chain are fully integrated, a real-time collaborative supply chain connecting the end customers of the market, the various departments within the manufacturing industry, and the upstream and downstream parties is formed. The highest level of the supply chain in the IT era CPFA (Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment) - Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment systems have emerged.
In the past, only big companies could achieve this because they involved huge IT and talent input. But now that the Internet has emerged, it may change the situation. Small businesses can also do it, and they can play even more extreme.
Because the internal system integration of the enterprise can be completed through Ethernet (LAN), and the cross-enterprise collaborative Internet plays an important role. Especially after the emergence of e-commerce, based on the data richness, real-time and forecasting accuracy of e-commerce transactions, it is far better than the daily reports of POS information in a single dimension. We also look forward to seeing the emergence of platform-level supply chain collaboration systems as early as possible on the 2B e-commerce platform.
5, flexible production will become the core competitiveness of manufacturing
Professor Tang Min, a counselor of the State Council, believes that in the future, China's relocation of labor-intensive industries with high-volume production and low cost to Southeast Asia will be overwhelming. The only Chinese company that can leave behind is low-volume, customized flexible manufacturing capacity. To understand this from a different perspective, if China can transform large-scale production and manufacturing systems so that they all have flexible production capabilities, then more manufacturing industries can be retained in China.
The so-called flexible production means that the production line can be arbitrarily switched between mass production and small batch production under the condition of consistent quality, delivery, and cost. More "mass customization" in the industry is just a form of flexible production and not a generic model. At the same time, the so-called "small and fast" (small batch, multi-category, rapid production) is not really flexible, because the large quantities of orders can not be done nor is it truly flexible production. At present, in the ascendant "smart manufacturing", we believe that the application of IOT technology to achieve flexible production or customized production also belongs to this category as a whole.
The reason why flexible production has become the core competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises, combined with the third point of the previous "supply chain synergy" is not difficult to understand. "Supply chain synergy" requires that the manufacturing company's production capacity be elastically changed according to the actual market demand changes: if it is sold well, if there is more demand, it will produce more; if it is not sold well, there will be less demand and less production. The lack of flexibility in the manufacturing industry means that your customers will be unlucky. They will either have to purchase large volumes of capital, or they will have to endure the risk of discontinued production.
Throughout the country, from the clothing, shoes and bags to steel, raw materials, manufacturing flexibility in all walks of life are accelerating. Take the steelworks as an example, the previous orders were all produced on a monthly basis, and were produced in batches using the “furnace” (a furnace with at least 50T in one batch); now, the orders for many varieties and small batches faced by steel mills are increasing. The more the delivery period is also delivered from the month to the week, the market situation forced the steel mills to change their production mode. For example, change to continuous production for semi-continuous production, steelmaking furnaces constantly change the type of steel, optimize the scheduling of steel production combined with small casting times, fine scheduling plans. On the whole, the so-called domestic overcapacity refers to backward production capacity and general production capacity. The production capacity that truly has flexible production capacity is very scarce.
6, how to achieve flexible production in the workshop, the Internet has emerged before the birth; the Internet to solve the things outside the workshop
The "Toyota Production Method" (TPS, Americans summed up as lean production) founded 60 years ago by Ohno Naiichi has greatly broken through the issue of flexible production. Lean production not only improves efficiency by eliminating waste, but more importantly, it achieves flexible production through innovations such as rapid die change (SMED) and onepiece flow. Mr. Ohno believes that the production of unwanted products and excessive production are the biggest waste. This, in essence, already includes the harmony of production and marketing, and the deep meaning of matching production and sales. By the 1990s, Canon's Cell Production had taken a big step forward in flexible production. The use of a large number of multi-energy cell-type production not only enables rapid switching of production and assembly of multiple varieties, but also stimulates the innovative ability of workers.
At the same time, the production innovation represented by Dell's mass customization represented another flexible production concept, namely modularization of products according to their functions, establishment of product families and component families, and internal implementation of components. Standardization and generalization. This model has made Dell's glory and widely spread as a business idea. The benchmarking companies of domestic industry 3.0, such as Shang Pinjia, Sofia and Qingdao Red Collar, have also followed this model and become industry leaders.
Therefore, the flexible production itself has nothing to do with the Internet. The problem to be solved by the Internet lies in a wider range of industrial chain collaboration problems, including the manufacturing companies and the downstream customers, as well as the cooperation with upstream raw material suppliers and equipment manufacturers.
7, not only softer but faster, faster response is more important than reducing production costs
In today's rapidly changing demand, one of the most important capabilities of manufacturing companies is to respond quickly to markets rather than production costs. Rapid response includes product innovation capabilities, fast delivery capabilities, and continuous replenishment capabilities. Under the overcapacity and the Internet's impetus, whether it is clothing, shoes and hats and other consumer goods, or cotton yarn, steel, non-ferrous metals, hardware, plastics and other industrial products, there have been changes in the order of the demand for small quantities, multi-category.
In the case of uncertain market demand, manufacturers are reluctant to make large-scale orders, but try to test production through small-lot orders, and do not start large batches of continuous orders until the actual market needs are tested. In order to ensure the production and sales opportunities, small orders, urgent orders, and short orders have become popular. This virtually eliminates the need for rapid response from manufacturing companies. Otherwise, they will gradually be eliminated.
The value of quick response to downstream customers is reflected in the liberation of customers from the risk of inventory overstocking and production stoppages, and timely grasp of market sales opportunities.
8. As far as a single company is concerned, Lean and IE are a candid road to Industry 4.0. After the Internet has emerged, is it possible to achieve "surpassing" through "paradigm shift"?
Based on the sixth point of view, it is not difficult to understand the following proposition. China's manufacturing industry must move to Industry 4.0. It must first fill in Industry 3.0, Lean Production, and even Industry 2.0, IE (Industrial Engineering). IE is the foundation of everything, TPS, 6Sigma, TOC (Theory of Constraints, bottleneck theory, often with lean production, Six Sigma and mention), 5S (modern factory management theory from Japan) are based on IE. Even Toyota talked about: Toyota's production method is the specific application of industrial engineering in Toyota. IE is using scientific methods to effectively use human, financial, material, information, and time management resources to maximize output.
The effective implementation of IE can enable enterprises to realize cost reduction and efficiency improvement without requiring capital investment. However, because IE originated from Taylor's scientific management, it has long been misunderstood and suppressed under the class theory until the 1990s.
It must be acknowledged that the use of Lean and IE to transform the existing traditional manufacturing industry has enormous difficulties. The most important thing is the concept, determination and even feelings of the first-hand man. Therefore, upgrading from a single factory to Industry 4.0 cannot exceed this gap. Under the conditions of the Internet, is it possible to achieve transcendence through the "technology-economic paradigm shift"? Will there be a "cloud system" in the manufacturing industry? Is it possible to achieve socialized and flexible production beyond the walls of the factory? The theory is feasible and reality has conditions, but we haven't seen it yet! This is worth keeping observation.
9. The core issue of “machine substitution” is how the software can be flexibly
There may be pitfalls in "machine substitution" oriented by automated equipment, mass production, and reduced manufacturing costs, because this is running counter to the development of global manufacturing. For example, an automatic sewing machine can replace six sewing workers, and indeed increases the productivity and saves labor.
However, the problem has arisen: automatic sewing machines require different types of clothing, different sewing requirements, pre-production of fixtures, but also need to manually program playing board, making stitching files. These additional costs make the automatic sewing machine still the most suitable for a single style mass production, and this is contrary to the overall development direction of flexible production in the clothing industry. Therefore, the key to "machine substitution" is how to achieve software flexibility, agile programming, or automatic programming, just like "quick mode change" in TPS.
The technological transformation with "machine substitution" as the main content mainly solves the problem of high labor costs. In fact, the main problems faced by the Chinese manufacturing industry are overcapacity and production and sales disengagement. Secondly, robots can indeed improve the efficiency of a certain operation, and it does not necessarily improve the overall efficiency of the enterprise. To make the robot really work, it is necessary to synchronize the "software" of production management, human resources, and information management with the hardware of the production line. planning. This means that the machine is not the most important technological change, and system thinking is more important.
10. The manufacturing transformation should be placed in the C2B model to consider the whole
In the Internet age, we must look at the manufacturing industry from the integration of production, supply, and sales. Any local optimisation may result in even worse results. So we must see the transformation of the entire business model in the future. We firmly believe that C2B (ConsumertoBusiness) is the mainstream business model in the information economy era. C2B = Customer Defined Value + SNS Marketing + Pulling Delivery System + Flexible Production.
Among them, the flexible production system is an important part of the C2B landing. If the manufacturing industry cannot do flexible production with large or small batch sizes, C2B will not be thorough and will be deeply hurt. Because the downstream companies implementing C2B will put their inventory in the manufacturing sector. This was the case with VIM (Vendor Managed Inventory) implemented by big brands in the past.
Conversely, if the downstream retail model does not change, then the value of flexible production is also difficult to reflect. For example, if you are still willing to accept large quantities of purchase orders such as Wal-Mart, you naturally produce 30,000 or 50,000 pieces of products, and you will not have the motivation or awareness to change the production methods. Therefore, the transformation of the business model is holistic and it is the transformation of production, supply and marketing.
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Jiangsu Shazi Electric Equipment Co., Ltd. , http://www.cnhotpoint.com
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