On the evening of January 14, the data released by relevant research institutions showed that in 2017, China's electric vehicle market achieved a lithium-ion battery capacity of 33.55 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 21%. According to the statistical data of the top 20 battery manufacturers, 20 battery factories including CATL, BYD, and Waterma total installed capacity of 28.86 GWh, with a total market share of 86.02%.
Industry sources said in an interview with reporters that this means that the market share of other battery manufacturers other than 20 is only 13.98%, but it has significantly improved compared to 10.29% in 2016. “The overall situation in 2017 was 'two squeezes' – the market share of CATL has increased rapidly, and the market share outside the top 20 has also improved, but the market share of the 2nd to 19th vendors has declined.”
December lithium battery installation is now "rushing tide"
According to statistics from research institutions, in December 2017, the installed capacity of lithium batteries in China's electric vehicle market was as high as 9.19GWh, which was a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, creating a monthly record high and a year-on-year growth of 60.2%.
Specifically, in December, the pure electric bus market achieved an installed capacity of 4.6 GWh. The market accounted for as much as 50.02% of the installed capacity. The first time alone accounted for more than half, mainly due to the significant decrease in the subsidy standard for the market in 2018, and a significant increase in battery energy density requirements. A consistent expectation has been formed to do everything possible in the final month.
In the pure electric vehicle market, the market achieved 2.01GWh of installed capacity in December, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year. Industry insiders said that in 2016, the electric vehicle market for pure electric vehicles began to break out in November of that year, and even more so in December. 2017 is no exception. In the case of rumors that the market subsidy standard will fall sharply, it will be reproduced. The previous year's rush-installation.
The reporter noted that due to the retreat of the subsidy policy, electric vehicles were rushed to surge in 2015, November and December of 2016, and the installed capacity of lithium batteries in the two months was equivalent to half of the whole year. The industry believes that since November 2017, due to concerns about the early fall of the subsidy policy, there has also been a certain degree of rush-installation, and it has been concentrated on pure electric buses and pure electric vehicles.
As early as 2015, the national ministries and commissions issued the “Notice on Financial Support Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles from 2016 to 2020”, and the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will decrease by 20% on 2016 basis, and the subsidy standard for 2016-2018 will be 2016. Decreased by 40% on a yearly basis. The "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued in 2016 stipulates the central and local subsidy standards and caps for various types of vehicles from 2019 to 2020.
Recently, different versions of the subsidy early retreat scheme have appeared on the Internet. There are also rumors that the plan for the early retreat of subsidies will be announced at the end of January 2018 and formally implemented on May 1, but the news has not yet been officially confirmed.
A high-level power battery company told reporters that the rumors of early subsidy fall are widely spread, and they will change from time to time. It can be seen that the program may have been adjusted several times. This has caused many vehicle companies to wait and see, which may cause this year. In the first quarter, the overall shipment volume of power batteries was low, which also had a certain impact on the battery plant's inventory and cash flow.
Middle-tier battery manufacturers are under pressure at both ends
Recalling the lithium battery installed market in 2017, the total installed capacity was 33.55 GWh, which was a year-on-year increase of 21%. According to reports released by research institutions, from the perspective of various types of lithium-ion batteries, in 2017, lithium iron phosphate battery installed 16.33GWh, accounting for 48.68%, NCM triple battery installed capacity 15GWh, accounting for 44.71%; lithium manganese battery to achieve The installed capacity was 1.4GWh, accounting for 4.16%; the lithium titanate battery was installed with 533.4MWh, and the vast majority was supplied by Zhuhai Yinlong.
According to industry analysts, although the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is still the main one, the proportion has decreased significantly compared with the previous year, and the absolute amount is also significantly lower than the previous year. The year-on-year increase in absolute volume more than doubled, and the proportion has also increased substantially.
In fact, the controversy over the use of lithium iron phosphate or ternary technology in the power battery technology line has not stopped since 2017, when subsidies for new energy vehicles were first linked to the energy density of the battery, thus promoting the installation of ternary and lithium manganese oxide batteries. The volume has increased significantly year-on-year. The reporter learned that the energy density of the ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries in the industry's leading companies is about 250wh/kg and 150wh/kg, respectively. The industry has previously estimated that the future will increase with the trend of battery energy density, and the lithium iron phosphate battery will switch to low-speed electric. In the car market, Sanyuan Battery has become the dominant technology.
According to the statistics of the research institutes, the 2017 total lithium-ion cumulative installed capacity of the top 20, CATL, BYD, and Waterma ranked 9 in the industry with installed capacity of 9865.9 MWh, 5406.8 MWh, and 2011.4 MWh, with market share of 29.41% and 16.12%, respectively. 6%.
Industry sources said that from the statistics of last year, CATL as the industry continues to expand market share, small and medium battery manufacturers are trying to expand their market share due to the crisis that has been eliminated, while the middle echelon battery manufacturers are under pressure from both sides. . However, according to a reporter interview, it is known that battery manufacturers in the industry have dropped from 109 in 2016 to about 80 today, and the battery industry continues to reshuffle, and the cooperation between batteries and upstream and downstream materials and car companies will also be further strengthened. .
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