According to research reports released recently by UBS Securities, the fundamentals of China's photovoltaic industry will be further improved in 2018: the cost of photovoltaic power generation will further decline. By 2020, the cost of power generation will drop by 33% to 0.35 yuan/kWh. The times are not far away.
In 2017, as the most “crazy” year for China's photovoltaic industry, the “6̇30” grab wave in the first half of the year has driven the installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations in China to peak. At the 2017 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference held on January 15, Shi Dingxi, president of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that in 2017 China's PV installed capacity exceeded 50 GW without any accident.
The cost of photovoltaic power generation will further decline
On January 2, the National Energy Administration released statistical data showing that as of the end of November 2017, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 48.37 GW. Among them, the newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics reached 17.23GW, which is 3.7 times of the new scale in the same period of 2016.
According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of November 2017, the cumulative installed PV capacity has reached 125.8 GW, which represents a year-on-year growth of 67%, of which, from January to November 2017, the new PV installation capacity was 48.4 GW; the cumulative installed capacity accounted for The proportion of total power installed capacity reached 7.5%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year.
However, 48GW is not the total installed capacity of new photovoltaics this year. At the 2017 China Photovoltaic Industry Conference held yesterday, Shi Dingxiang announced that in 2017 China's PV installed capacity exceeded 50 GW without any accident.
Among them, Shi Dingxi pointed out in the report that China's PV power generation exceeded 100 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time in 2017. Statistics Bureau disclosed that from January to November 2017, China’s photovoltaic power generation amounted to 106.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 72%, of which centralized photovoltaic power generation was 93.2 billion kWh and distributed photovoltaic power generation was 13.7 billion kWh. According to this calculation, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation to total power generation is 1.86%.
The reason for the increase in power generation is mainly due to the development of new technologies and new processes such as high-efficiency single crystals, high-efficiency batteries, and high-efficiency components, and the power generation efficiency of solar cells has increased from 10% to more than 20%. The ability is gradually increasing.
The installed capacity in 2017 will exceed 50 GW. What will be the impact on the PV market in 2018?
According to research reports released by UBS Securities recently, in 2018, the fundamentals of China's photovoltaic industry will be further improved: the cost of photovoltaic power generation will further decline. By 2020, the cost of power generation will drop by 33% to 0.35 yuan/kWh. "The era is not far away. From 2018 to 2020, the global demand for photovoltaics will reach 112GW to 136GW. Among them, China's annual installed PV capacity will be at least 50GW. China's first-line photovoltaic manufacturers are still underestimated. These photovoltaic manufacturing faucets rely on technology. The company continued to innovate and transform new capacity into new market share and consolidate its position in the industry.
In this regard, photovoltaic industry expert Zhao Yuwen told reporters: “The installed capacity of more than 50 GW in 2017 is due to this year’s “6̇30” rush to seize the tide. In order to grab a higher subsidy on the grid before June 30, Many photovoltaic companies began to exert their efforts in the first half of the year, pushing up the annual installed capacity."
Distributed photovoltaic surge
In addition to the large-scale ground power stations, distributed photovoltaic power stations also surged in 2017. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November 2017, China's distributed PV installed capacity reached 17.23GW, which is 3.7 times the new scale in the same period of 2016, and the growth rate increased threefold year-on-year.
At the meeting, Shi Dingxi pointed out that under the rush of the last month of December, the distributed installation of 2017 will be close to 20GW.
It is worth noting that the distributed photovoltaic power generation project that was put into operation after January 1, 2018, adopting the "self-use, surplus" model, the subsidy standard was adjusted to 0.37 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt-hour. The distributed photovoltaic power generation project adopting the "full-on-line" model will be executed at the price of the photovoltaic power station in the resource area where it is located.
Although the distributed subsidy has been lowered, the lower-than-expected adjustment of 0.05 yuan will be favorable to the distributed photovoltaic market. In addition, the residential electricity subsidies standard for distributed photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects will remain unchanged, which will greatly stimulate the outbreak of distributed photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects for households.
In this regard, the photovoltaic industry insider Liao Wei told reporters, "As a result of the policy, distributed photovoltaics will continue to usher in this year's outbreak, there is no decline in power subsidies, which will allow many photovoltaic companies to seize this year's distributed photovoltaic market Share."
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