At the beginning of 2017, when the industry predicted that the production and sales of new energy vehicles would reach 700,000 vehicles that year, there was a lot of doubt. However, the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were released in 2017. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 774,000 vehicles and 777,000 vehicles in 2017, respectively, an increase of 53.8% and 53.3% respectively.
The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles still maintains the trend of rapid growth. On January 16, 2018, at the 2018 First China (Chengdu) New Energy Automobile Summit held in Chengdu, Chen Quanshi, Director of the Institute of Automobile Research at Tsinghua University and deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, said that he did not think ".
In 2018, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be further reduced, and the industry competition will further intensify. Therefore, whether the current industry will start shuffling has become the focus of all parties.
Subsidy or transfer to the backend
At the 2018 First China (Chengdu) New Energy Automobile Summit Forum, one of the focuses of all walks of life was the change in the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles.
In 2015, the four ministries and commissions of the State issued the “Notice on Financial Support Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles for 2016-2020”, and the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will decrease by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2016-20 will be based on the 2016 basis. On the decline of 40%.
Zhang Jianhua, editor-in-chief of the electric vehicle resource network, believes that at present, although the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has not officially landed in 2018, subsidy retreat has been firmly established.
According to many industry insiders, whether the industry will start shuffling in 2018 or be the biggest challenge facing the new energy auto industry.
According to Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the National Science and Technology Achievements Conversion Fund and New Energy Automotive Venture Capital Sub-Fund, after the tightening of policy supervision, the participation of elite capitals will increase the competition in the industry, and the reshuffle of the new energy auto industry will accelerate. Fang Jianhua said that there are currently more than 200 battery companies on the market and there may be more than 20 in the future. In addition, equipment companies may also face reshuffle in the future, so everyone must be prepared to think.
Competition in the industry may intensify, but in the view of some people in the industry, this does not mean that the country no longer supports the development of the new energy automobile industry, and thus has to eliminate subsidies. On the contrary, some participants believe that the country will further optimize the path of subsidies from the front-end of subsidies to the back-end of subsidies. The so-called front-end refers to the stage of R&D, production, and sales; the so-called back-end refers to the after-sales aspects of new energy vehicles such as parking, license plates, and road rights.
Chen Quanshi pointed out that the current aftermarket sales of new energy vehicles have major problems and are more important. Therefore, the country's next-step subsidies may shift from the front-end to the back-end, and subsidies may be strengthened in charging, parking, license plates, and road rights.
It is understood that compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles currently have advantages in terms of purchase tax deductions and special licenses. In addition, issues concerning right-of-way, parking fee reduction, and high-speed fee reduction for new energy vehicles are also being demonstrated.
Many battery companies are not strong
"Daily Economic News" reporter noted that at present, the domestic new energy vehicles based on pure electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles "three major" (battery, motor, electronic control), the most important number of batteries.
A few days ago, the research report released by the Real Lithium Research showed that the total installed capacity of lithium batteries in 2017 was 33.55 GWh (or 33.5 billion watt-hours), a year-on-year increase of 21%. Although the growth in installed capacity is strong, lithium battery companies cannot say "strong."
Wu Feng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, pointed out that according to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the number of vehicle-mounted power battery vehicles reached 16.3 billion watt-hours in 2015, 28.1 billion watt-hours in 2016, 35 billion-hour-hours in 2017, and 2020 demand. At 100 billion watt hours. However, the annual production capacity of the battery industry in 2017 is expected to reach 200 billion watt-hours, so it can be seen that the production capacity is obviously excessive and there are not many dominant companies.
In addition, in the power battery technology line, with the subsidy policy more emphasis on energy density, the current industry seems more optimistic about the three yuan lithium battery.
According to Fang Jianhua, in 2018, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be adjusted. One of the directions for adjustment is that subsidy mileage will be more refined, and energy density requirements will increase.
According to the research report issued by the aforementioned real lithium research, from the perspective of various types of lithium-ion batteries, the lithium iron phosphate battery achieved 16.33 GWh in 2017, accounting for 48.68% of the total; the NCM triple battery realized 15GWh, accounting for 44.71%; manganese acid Lithium battery capacity 1.4GWh, accounting for 4.16%.
Regarding the current structure of lithium battery installed capacity, Wang Cheng, deputy director of the China Automotive Technology Research Center's Beijing Department of Work, said at the forum that the share of lithium ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries is basically the same, gradually taking the leading position in the market.
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