Recently, security agencies have announced two processor security flaws that will potentially damage the CPU market;
Intel, the processor market leader, is the hardest hit and needs to deal with two kinds of security flaws. AMD is faced with one kind of hard-to-repair vulnerabilities that have no solution yet;
Despite this, from the potential impact of these two threats on the company's share price, AMD is less affected than Intel's;
Intel’s agreement on the adoption of Radeon GPUs, AMD’s potential to increase the average selling price of its products, and news that Apple’s latest iMacPro adopts the Vega program will boost AMD’s share price in the coming months.
Two bombs in the CPU market
Recently, foreign security research institutions announced two sets of CPU vulnerabilities - "blown" and "ghost". How will these serious and influential vulnerabilities affect the pattern of AMD and Intel on the CPU battlefield?
CPU processor chip is facing structural remodeling, ghost and fuse hole has such a great power?
Intel said that most CPUs manufactured since 1995 have chip defects called "blowing." Through this loophole, hackers can access the processor's memory space and obtain photos and passwords from smart phones, laptops, desktops, and data center servers, thus posing a huge security risk. This loophole is basically unique to Intel products, so Intel will certainly suffer from the discovery of this loophole.
In addition, there is a processor defect called "ghost". Although the mechanism is different, it will expose the device to the same security risks. The flaws are widely found in Intel, AMD and ARM chips. Although patches have been developed to solve the "fuse" problem, there is no suitable solution to eliminate the "ghost" vulnerability. Therefore, this issue will also have a major impact on AMD.
Needs substantial redesign
In addition to compromising Intel's reputation, it has been reported that patches developed to solve the "fuse" problem will reduce processor computing speed by 5% to 30%. This statistic makes Intel hesitant to redesign, because of its chip design flaws, Windows and Linux kernels need to be redesigned.
The "fuse" solution is to completely separate the memory of the kernel. In this way, the chip must discard the data in the cache and read the data from the memory. Obviously, this way of separating the kernel memory will bring the negative impact of increased processing time. Some people have analyzed that in the worst case scenario, the patch will cause the speed of operation to drop significantly and have a huge impact on typical workloads.
The problem that AMD needs to focus on now is its processor's "ghost" loophole. Like "blowing," repairing this loophole will greatly reduce the speed at which computers can run, and the cost of repairs will be high.
Caught the attention of hackers
The outlook for AMD and Intel is not clear. Hackers attack these security holes without leaving any logs or traces, so no one customer can swear that they have not been hacked. The publicity of this vulnerability will certainly attract the attention of those who are bad. The "ghost" loophole has not yet found a solution. The important thing is that if you fix it from the hardware level, it will be unacceptable to both AMD and Intel.
Assessing the impact of processor vulnerabilities on the CPU battlefield landscape requires taking into account many unknowns. In spite of this, in recent quarters, AMD has regained some advantages in the confrontation with Intel by improving its revenue performance and improving its balance sheet.
CPU is the focus of AMD's revenue. In the third quarter of 2017, AMD’s corporate division recorded revenue of US$824 million, while its computing and graphics division generated revenue of US$819 million, a year-on-year increase of 74%. AMD's fourth fiscal quarter will end at the end of this month. This quarter's financial report may provide some information on how much security vulnerabilities have affected its sales, because large data center companies realized that they had "blown" and "a few months ago." "Ghost" problem exists.
AMD's comparative advantage
Any negative impact from processor security breaches should be considered in conjunction with AMD’s revenue guidelines. AMD claims that due to declining demand for cryptocurrency miners, the company’s fourth-quarter earnings may decline from the third quarter. 15%.
However, although the "ghost" issue is more difficult to solve than the "fuse" issue, Intel is facing the double blow of "blown" and "ghost" loopholes, and AMD only needs to face a "ghost" issue. So when Intel loses in the CPU market, AMD is the most likely player to make a profit. According to Passmark, on January 5, 2018, Intel’s share of the CPU market was approximately 82%, while AMD had approximately 18% market share.
The exposure of these processor defects will enable AMD to gain a comparative advantage over Intel because of changes in the company's business environment. Intel is currently undergoing a difficult forced transition due to the decline in the personal computer market and the growth of various business segments. Weaknesses, and the rapid evolution of data center server requirements and delays in entering the artificial intelligence market, Intel's stock price has only increased by 7.96 US dollars (17.8%) in the past year.
Higher profit margin
Although AMD’s share price has been in turmoil in the past 12 months, some analysts published an article on December 19, 2017, stating that AMD’s stock price will return to the rising channel.
The three judgments of this article are based on the agreement reached between Intel and AMD on Radeon GPU, AMD may raise the average selling price, Apple's latest iMacPro adopts Vega program. Currently, the company is targeting the high-end computing market, which can provide higher profit margins, and is constantly making efforts to increase its operating cash flow to US$66 million in the third quarter of 2017. In the past 24 months, the company's debt has dropped from $2 billion in the first quarter of 2016 to about $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2017, helping AMD raise its cash reserves to $879 million. .
With revenue growth, increased profit margins and cash flow, and reduced debt, the combined effects of these advances have improved AMD's financial position and enabled it to better respond to the “ghost” issue.
One theory is that people will express their opinions to the market through the stock price of the company. The stock market has already given preliminary opinions on the relative advantages of Intel to the "blown" and "ghost" loopholes. Since December 20, 2017, when processor security breaches began to spread, Intel’s stock price dropped from a high of 47.60 US dollars to 42.44 US dollars, a decrease of 10.84%, while AMD’s share price from the same period from 10 The $80 rose to a high of $12.43, an increase of 15.09%.
in conclusion
Although it is also facing a "ghost" loophole, Intel's CPU market leader, Intel also needs to face the "blown" loophole, making AMD gain a comparative advantage over Intel.
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