Rising prices are becoming a major tone in the electronic component market, and PCBs, which are the carriers for connection of components, are also continuing to increase in price. However, along with the "spring breeze" that restricts environmental protection, the PCB companies in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are facing new problems.
From the limit of Jiangsu Kunshan at the end of 2017 to Zhuhai, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the entire PCB industry will usher in a new situation after this wave of rising prices, and many PCB manufacturers will follow suit. "Wind" dispersed.
The micro-grid reporter was informed that the overall price increase of this wave of PCB is currently in the range of 20-30%. At the same time, the limited number of PCB factories in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have to accelerate to inland (Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing). As a result of regional transfer, many old or non-compliant PCB production capacities will gradually be eliminated.
For the new market in this PCB industry, the author discovered through investigation that this is exactly the result of factors such as rising prices of raw materials, unequal supply and demand, technological upgrades, tight production capacity, and environmental protection restrictions under the industry's “disruption”. A new model for component price increases.
Kunshan's limit emissions swept to Shanghai and Shenzhen. Environmental tax increases PCB plant operating costs
On December 24, 2017, Kunshan City issued an emergency notice of a complete shutdown, which required the 270 companies within the city to stop production completely. When the news came out, it caused an uproar in the industry, and in particular caused a rebound in Kunshan Taiwanese manufacturers. Two days later, Kunshan City announced once again that the previous notice of suspension was not implemented. The next step required a “restricted emission schedule”.
Industry sources revealed to JiWei.com that Kunshan City had not implemented a complete shutdown and only required rectification. This was because the Kunshan Taiwanese Businessmen Association and the Kunshan Municipal Government had held consultations. If across the board, many companies in the industrial chain will die, coupled with the fear that workers will become unemployed. Of the companies that requested production suspension, Taiwanese manufacturers accounted for nearly half of the total, and PCB factories are the hardest hit by this row of rectification because of heavy pollution.
Mr. Liu Sheng, general manager of Shenzhen Qianhai Xinsi Road Science & Technology Co., Ltd., was deeply involved in the industry insider. He stated to JiWei.com that the requirement for PCB factories to increase environmental protection is an inevitable trend of the industry. Currently, the environmental standards for PCB manufacturers are divided into green cards and blue cards. These two are relatively high environmental standards. PCB manufacturers without green cards or blue cards will certainly be investigated and need to be rectified.
Liu Sheng further said that at present it is first to rectify the environmental protection limit of PCB companies in East China, and it is only a matter of time before PCB factory reorganization in South China. The PCB industry may not be able to rectify all of a sudden, otherwise it will have a great impact on the entire industry chain.
The same is true. Zhuhai also issued a limit notice after the limitation of Kunshan. Subsequently, Shanghai also began to limit the reorganization, and spread to Shenzhen, represented by the Pearl River Delta.
On January 5th, Shanghai issued the “List of Key Polluters in Shanghai in 2018”, which carried out screening and investigation of the water environment, atmospheric environment, soil environment, acoustic environment, and other five key pollutant discharge units.
According to industry sources, the author revealed to me that since the beginning of 2018, all major industrial parks in Shenzhen Baoan have also been investigated by the environmental protection department. The industrial area often cut off water and electricity, and was forced to stop production.
Shenzhen Circuit Board Industry Association staff also confirmed to the author that PCB manufacturers in major industrial areas in Shenzhen Baoan have already been investigated and rectified if they are not up to standard.
So what pollution does PCB factory have? Because PCB board design needs electroplating, etching, developing technology, and many processes use chemical medicine, which brings heavy pollution.
In addition to the Kunshan event, there is a big move for the PCB industry, which is the environmental tax. Since January 1, 2018, the “Environmental Protection Tax” has been implemented, and the PCB factory will increase taxes according to the specific conditions of its sewage and exhaust gas. The wastewater and waste gas discharge costs will increase 3-5 times or even more. For PCB manufacturers, the operating costs are undoubtedly increased.
Rising prices can be traced back to 2016, analyzing the major causes of PCB consumption
In the face of industry environmental restrictions and the impact of new environmental protection taxes, for the PCB industry, on the one hand, the production capacity of PCB companies in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta will be reduced, and supply and demand imbalances will lead to price increases; on the other hand, PCB The tax burden on the factory is heavier and the price increase is justified.
Jinrong Zhu, Director of Corporate Development Department Zhu Rongwei, told the author that PCB board price increase can be said to be a kind of price transfer because upstream raw materials such as copper foil and glass fiber continue to rise in price; another reason is that in 2016, the lithium industry broke out and eaten. A lot of copper foil production capacity. The price of raw materials rose by more than 100% in 2016 and fell back in early 2017, and then began to focus on price increases.
Among them, the copper foil is deposited on the substrate layer of the circuit board as a conductor of the PCB. In the PCB manufacturing cost, the copper-clad laminate occupies about 37% of the PCB cost. It is reported that from the beginning of 2016, the supply of electronic copper foil has been in short supply. This phenomenon has intensified, and there has been no fundamental improvement in the peak in the fourth quarter of 2016, which has pushed up the price of PCB in 2016.
The rise in PCB prices in 2017 is more of a demand-led growth. Liu Sheng said that in July 2017, the PCB industry began to change from a light season to a high season, starting several times in July. Among them, the major increase in orders for domestic smart phone manufacturers is the main demand driven.
Large increase in mobile phone orders can also cause problems. Because mobile phone customers place orders on a large scale, when the production capacity of the first and second-tier PCB manufacturers is insufficient, the low-end orders will be issued to the third and fourth-wire board factories; after the third and fourth-line board factories receive orders, they will start to do relative work. For high-end products, their original low-end orders are also issued to the five-and-six-wire factory. This raises the issue of soaring bills outside the mill.
If there is no output, the fact that some companies have no output will have a great impact on the entire industry because the entire industry chain is interlocking. In addition, after the tight production capacity, the delivery cycle has multiplied, resulting in more panic orders.
In addition, driven by the mining machine in 2017, the PCB production capacity consumed is also very large, and many of the major manufacturers' PCB production capacity has been eaten by miners. The mineral mining industry driven by Bitcoin soared in 2017, and the direct consumption of PCB production capacity was unexpected.
Overall price increase of 20-30%, new capacity released in March-June this year
Based on the above factors to promote the current price increase in the PCB market is what? Liu Sheng revealed that from July 2017 to the peak season, the increase was about 5%, with multiple rounds of adjustment, the current PCB overall price range 20-30%.
In the largest mobile phone market for PCB board applications, the iPhone, Huawei, OV, and Bai Lifeng mobile phones have different requirements for the PCB board, and the corresponding prices are very different, and the increase is not the same. Liu Sheng revealed to the author that at present, the price of each functional PCB of the functional machine is more than 1 yuan (including tax), and the price of the low-end intelligent PCB is between 3-5 yuan, and the price of the mid-end PCB is between 5-10 yuan. In the high-end smart machine PCB board 10-20 yuan, higher-end PCB board will exceed 20 yuan, the difference is still very large.
Liu Sheng further said that the iPhone8's PCB is 12-layer through, the cost is higher than 20 yuan; Oppo/Vivo and other mid-range PCB in the 10th and 2nd order, the price is about 12 yuan; Bailifeng and other low-end smart machines are used 4 or 8-layer board, the cost is about 6 yuan.
Through the mobile phone PCB price, we can see that the cost price of the entire PCB product is not high, but is driven by many factors, the overall increase of PCB board by 20-30%, which seems reasonable in the industry, and some PCB factories The price increase is only 10% and does not rule out malicious competition for robbing singles. It is no exaggeration to say that the current PCB market is turbulent, and the current price and delivery cycle are not uniform.
As the PCB production capacity was tighter in the fourth quarter of 2017, the delivery cycle was once extended to 90 days. This caused many panic orders. Many planners placed orders for three months in advance, but now they encountered terminal manufacturers. Cutting the bills caused the market to be relatively chaotic.
Facts have proved that many terminal manufacturers began to cut orders in the first quarter of 2018, which is also the traditional low season of the PCB market. Liu Sheng said that many industrial chain companies will die because of this wave of PCB market, and now many manufacturers do not mention the products can not be moved, the downstream manufacturers do not take delivery or inform slowly, in fact, is not single.
More importantly, in the first half of 2018, there will be a lot of new PCB plant capacity release for expansion, which will have a huge impact on the PCB market after the price increase. The new production capacity will be gradually put into operation from March to June this year. The new production capacity is doubled on the original basis. If the production capacity of Kunshan is not stopped, the PCB price will start to decline after March of this year. , coupled with the impact of environmental protection, will lead to the original many non-profit making companies gradually collapsed.
Behind the industrial migration, domestic PCB companies will usher in a golden period of development
As a whole, due to environmental protection restrictions and policies and raw material price increases and other multiple factors, after the release of new capacity in 2018, the entire PCB industry will usher in major changes, the production capacity of small and medium-sized PCB factories or eliminated or acquired. PCB manufacturers will further increase their market concentration.
In the new production capacity this year, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are not the main force for the expansion of PCB manufacturers. Constrained by the impact of environmental protection restrictions, PCB manufacturers' expansion has long been transferred to central regions such as Jiangxi, Hubei, and Chongqing. These regional governments will also provide policy support, unlike the development status of the Pearl River Delta and other regions. Contaminated manufacturing companies), the entire PCB market will usher in industrial migration.
Industry transfer is indeed the status quo of the PCB industry. On the one hand, cities such as Kunshan and Shenzhen really “catch up” with these PCB companies; on the other hand, regions such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing are indeed “leading” PCB companies. Support economic development.
"According to industry data, the global PCB output value in 2016 is about 60 billion US dollars. It is estimated that the global PCB output value will reach 70 billion US dollars in the next few years. Coupled with the support of the local manufacturing industry, Chinese PCB manufacturers will gradually seize market share, and will usher in gold. Development period.” Liu Sheng believes that in the future, 70% of global PCB output value will come from China. The current timing is the best opportunity for the development of domestic PCB industry.
Zhu Rongwei also believes that the PCB industry is now the golden period for the development of Chinese companies, investment will increase, and the competition will be more intense, coupled with the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the concentration of domestic PCB industry will gradually increase after the transfer. In addition, industrial mergers and acquisitions are unavoidable. After small-scale manufacturers are difficult to maintain, closures or mergers and acquisitions will become the norm.
As for the development trend of the domestic PCB industry this year, the overall opportunity will be greater than the challenge. "In 2018, China's PCB industry will be half the flames of seawater, because the trend of inward migration of the PCB industry is very obvious, especially the promotion of capital power in these two years. More domestic PCB manufacturers will be listed. Under the blessing of funds, it must be determined. It will gradually expand production and increase market share.” Zhu Rongwei said that with the continuous release of production capacity and the impact of environmental protection issues, it will certainly lead to a new round of reshuffling for PCB manufacturers, and the company’s strength will determine whether it can survive, so say 2018 The entire PCB industry still has changes. The price of the PCB market also depends on the release of this wave of production capacity and the overall situation of the industry.
However, it is worth emphasizing that under the influence of environmental protection policies, environmental protection will be an important consideration when the newly expanded PCB factory in the inland area begins to be built. Because environmental protection is not up to standard, rectification or shutdown will be an inevitable trend. . So, in order to avoid the old path, PCB manufacturers must strengthen the supply chain management, improve the process, pay attention to environmental issues of low pollution, the domestic migration of the PCB industry is not an industrial upgrade.
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