The SEMI Industry Strategy Seminar (ISS 2018) opened today and the first one is about economic trends. Daniel Niles (AlphaOne Capital Partners) started with "the golden age of global growth - semiconductor revenue rose by 20% year-on-year (good news and bad news)". Of course, the good news is that semiconductors will continue to play a key role in commercial products and infrastructure (cloud) and defense products (HPC/AI). The bad news is that this may not be too long.
Daniel displayed 41 slides covering a wide range of economic indicators and pointed out possible cooling periods in the industry. Daniel summarizes the short-term and long-term forecasts of the semiconductor industry on his slide.
Semiconductor industry short-term forecast
Semi's research on the 2017 calendar year shows that the semiconductor industry has achieved the best growth since the global economy was still recovering from the financial crisis in 2010. However, personal computer sales increased by 14% in 2010 (-2% in 2017), mobile phone sales increased by 32% (4% in 2017), and car sales increased by 14% (2% in 2017).
Specific to the month, the year-on-year increase was 23% in November; 20% in October, 20% in September, and 25% in August.
In September 2017, IC sales grew by 7%, compared with 11% in August, 10% in July, and 15% in May.
In the third quarter of 2017, apple stocks increased by 128% year-on-year, how much they needed to consume in the first quarter of this year, only 12% year-on-year growth? In comparison, Cisco inventory increased by 44%; HP increased by 29%. .
In the madly growing memory market, Samsung Electronics achieved a 41% growth; Hynix was 23%.
The automotive market is not the largest memory terminal market. The inventory of Volkswagen, Toyota, and Ford increased by 9-18% year-on-year.
Every spring, the semiconductor industry's delivery time will be extended and the increase in inventory will be promoted. Even if sales are strong during the holiday season, the seasonal demand decline in March will still cause the company’s inventory to be consumed badly.
In 2016, semiconductor shipments grew by 5%, compared with 15% in 2017. This does not make much sense. We believe that adjustments will occur by early 2018. The only problem is the growth in the end product market unit, the huge disparity between the inventory on the balance sheet and the growth of the semiconductor industry unit.
Semiconductor industry long-term forecast
Positive news
Cloud computing still has a long way to go to cope with future data from driverless cars; artificial intelligence will require huge computing power to copy 100B neurons into one's brain.
3D sensing technology will be one of the fastest growing markets and it is estimated that between 2020 and 2021, 150 million completely unmanned vehicles will be used worldwide every year. This will require a large number of 3D sensors.
By 2040, the United Kingdom and France will ban the production of diesel and gasoline cars. China is also considering adopting similar measures.
Volkswagen will invest 20 billion euros in the electric version of all models by 2030;
The industrial robot market reached 12 billion U.S. dollars in 2016 and will reach nearly 35 billion U.S. dollars by 2025. Robots should be taxed according to Bill Gates' standards.
Voice and video cameras as computer/mobile phone control inputs require a lot of computing power.
Smartphones should continue to maintain growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and be the device of choice for Internet access.
As smartphones continue to be the preferred device, PCs may continue to fade for years.
potential risks
By 2025, China will achieve its self-sufficiency goal of 70%. Just like Japan in the 80s, South Korea/Taiwan in the 90s.
Semiconductor debt levels have risen and the combined interest rate may be higher.
The consolidation of the semiconductor industry is slowing down, so investment is needed to drive future earnings growth.
Even with a total economic volume of 18 trillion U.S. dollars, the trade deficit of 50 billion U.S. dollars is also a big problem, and the border tax will be destructive.
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